Adaptive Research Brief: July 18, 2019 – Gold vs the Dollar

 

This year we have witnessed a breakout in the price of gold, with the spot price finally cracking through an elusive ceiling of $1300/oz. At the end of June, the spot price hit $1409/oz, representing a 10% gain. It is important to note that this move is in US dollar terms. In the face of a weakening US dollar, the price of gold converted back to Canadian dollars has risen by only about 6% this year.

There are many theories bandied about as to what drives gold prices higher. Inflation, interest rates, equity market risk, are a few drivers. We suspect that the primary driver is the value of the US dollar. When the US dollar strengthens, the price of gold tends to fall, and vice-versa. Taking a look at the correlation between the spot price of gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY / The US dollar relative to a basket of major currencies), it has historically been modestly negative. However, it recently touched a multi-year low and is trending toward a very strong negative level.

Source: data retrieved from Bloomberg database July 2019
Source: data retrieved from Bloomberg database July 2019

The end result is that Canadian investors looking to add gold exposure to their portfolios should strongly consider looking at gold ETFs that hedge US dollar exposure.

Disclaimer
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These materials do not purport to be exhaustive and although the particulars contained herein were obtained from sources Bellwether believes are reliable, Bellwether does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. The contents hereof does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of interest to purchase any securities or investment advisory services in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized.
Forward-Looking Information. The contents hereof may contain “forward-looking information” within the meaning of the Securities Act (Ontario) and equivalent legislation in other provinces and territories. Because such forward-looking information involves risks and uncertainties, actual performance results may differ materially from any expectations, projections or predictions made or implicated in such forward-looking information. Prospective investors are therefore cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. In addition, in considering any prior performance information contained herein, prospective investors should bear in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that results comparable to those discussed herein will be achieved. The contents hereof speaks as of the date hereof and neither Bellwether nor any affiliate or representative thereof assumes any obligation to provide subsequent revisions or updates to any historical or forward-looking information contained herein to reflect the occurrence of events and/or changes in circumstances after the date hereof.
General information regarding returns. Performance is expressed in CAD unless otherwise indicated, gross of applicable management fees. Indicated returns of one year or more are annualized. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
General information regarding the use of benchmarks. The indices listed have been selected for purposes of comparing performance with widely-known, broad-based benchmarks. Performance may or may not correlate to any of these indices and should not be considered as a proxy for any of these indices. The S&P/TSX Composite Index (Net TR) (“S&P TSX TR”) is the headline index and the principal broad market measure for the Canadian equity markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Stock Price Index (“S&P 500”) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks intended to be a representative sample of leading companies in leading industries within the U.S. economy.
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